After a brief consolidation early last week, the cryptocurrency market has made several impulse price movements. The spikes in volatility have been linked to macroeconomic developments that continue to keep investors at bay.
Following the results of Thursday and Friday of last week, Bitcoin made a downward breakdown of the $22k level and reached the level of $19.6k. Subsequently, we saw a quick consolidation and a strong reaction from buyers, which led to the full recovery of Friday's price drop.
Bitcoin is approaching the new trading week on a bullish note and increased buying volumes. It is likely that the cryptocurrency and the entire market will continue its upward movement, but the fundamental background remains tense.
Fundamental news background
The main factor that provoked a surge in volatility was liquidity problems at the crypto-friendly bank Silicon Valley. The likely collapse of the large bank hit one of the largest stablecoins USDC, as well as DAI, which caused a local panic in the crypto market.
The Fed, together with the U.S. Department of Treasury, announced emergency support for deposits for SVB and other banks in a difficult situation. The probable cause of liquidity problems for banks may be the Fed's hawkish policy, which contributed to a decrease in the yield of bonds purchased at a neutral rate.
This means that in particularly difficult times, banks can rely on much smaller amounts of liquidity than they initially had due to the rapid deterioration of the monetary situation. CNN analysts believe that U.S. banks have unrealized losses of $620 billion.
At the same time, there are relatively positive signals from the labor market, where the reality turned out to be worse than forecasts for the first time in a long time. As a result, BBG reports that the latest unemployment report pushed the likelihood of a 0.50% rate hike in March down to 50%.
This news is "positive" only in quotes, because everything that happens has one key reason—inflation. And if the indicator does not fall significantly by the end of February, then the situation in both the U.S. economy and the crypto market will deteriorate significantly.
BTC/USD Analysis
Bitcoin managed to defend the key support level of $20k and recover above $22k. This is a positive signal indicating the general stabilization of the situation and the fundamental interest of investors in the cryptocurrency.
Despite the temporary easing of pressure on the crypto market, BTC remains in close relationship with the SPX index. JPMorgan analysts are sure that in the next three months the stock market may lose about 20% of capitalization, and Bitcoin will expect similar dynamics.
Successfully raising liquidity below $22k has accumulated over $500 million in liquidated positions in less than a week . This allowed the buyers to consolidate above the key $21.6k resistance level.
The asset returned to $22.4k and is trying to resume its upward movement to the $22.6k–$22.8k levels for further consolidation above $23k. However, as of writing, BTC was facing strong seller resistance, as evidenced by a large upper wick.
The 4H chart shows that the sellers have seized the initiative locally, and therefore, the buyers will try to stabilize the price near the $21.6k–$22k levels. Bitcoin needs a pause to accumulate volumes, so in the near future, we should expect local consolidation near $22k.
Results
The situation on the crypto market returned to normal after the panic that arose at the end of last week. The fundamental threat remains, and in the long run, U.S. government agencies will not be able to put out all the fires. Given this, we should expect further bursts of volatility and sharp price movements within a wide area of $20k–$24.4k.
