empty
09.04.2025 02:55 AM
EUR/USD Overview. April 9. The American Circus

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair traded much more calmly on Tuesday. That's no surprise—the market has already reacted to all the news about tariffs and counter-tariffs, and the actual implementation date no longer carries much weight. The market has settled somewhere between the 1.09 and 1.10 levels, although it's too early to speak of complete stabilization. More likely, this is just the calm before the next storm. After all, no one doubts that Trump will go all the way. And what does he have to lose? The U.S. president is 78 years old. Maybe he dreams of running for a third term, but during Biden's entire presidency, Trump repeatedly called him "old and sick." In four years, Trump himself will be 82.

Trump left the White House amid a scandal four years ago, and even then, he hadn't yet had time to truly "mess things up." Does anyone seriously believe that Americans will willingly vote for Trump again in four years? Or for any Republican who might hand over power to Trump within a week? In 2020, Americans were ready to vote for anyone but Trump. In 2028, they may be prepared to vote for Darth Vader or Spider-Man if the country keeps heading down this road.

We're still shocked that Trump managed to win a second term. Then again, Americans have only themselves to blame. They didn't like Biden—fine, here's Trump again. Stock markets are in freefall, the dollar is depreciating rapidly, and America is feuding with half the world. And this is just after three months of Trump's presidency.

A separate note must be made regarding another key figure in the current chaos—Elon Musk. During the election campaign, he was frequently seen alongside Trump and even landed a position in the White House. But here's the problem—once Trump started implementing tariffs, Tesla's shares nosedived, and global sales dropped to record lows. What's more, Americans themselves are now protesting against Musk, torching his cars and defacing his factories and showrooms. Musk has gone from being a legend and idol to a national pariah.

And once the billionaire realized things would only worsen, he started speaking out against Trump's trade policy. Of course, when tariffs targeted the entire automotive sector, Musk was riding high, already imagining billions in added revenue from Tesla sales. But within a month, some countries' sales collapsed by 80–90%. Many consumers are now boycotting not only Musk's products but everything American.

However, as we've already said, Trump is unlikely to stop. He's already fired Musk from the White House to prevent him from interfering with "matters of national importance." Musk is now urging Trump to introduce zero tariffs with the European Union—after all, someone still has to buy Tesla EVs.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 9 is 190 pips, categorized as "high." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0717 and 1.1097 on Wednesday. The long-term regression channel is pointing upward, indicating a short-term uptrend. The CCI indicator entered the overbought zone, signaling a possible correction. However, the trend remains bullish for now.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.0864

S2 – 1.0742

S3 – 1.0620

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.0986

R2 – 1.1108

R3 – 1.1230

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair maintains its upward trend. For months, we've said we expect a medium-term decline in the euro, and that forecast remains unchanged. The U.S. dollar, except Donald Trump, still has no fundamental reason for a medium-term decline. But that one reason alone continues to push the dollar into the abyss. It's a rare and unprecedented case for the currency market.

Short positions remain attractive with targets at 1.0315 and 1.0254, though it's extremely difficult to say when the "Trump-fueled" rally in the pair will end, or how many more tariffs and sanctions the U.S. president will announce. If you're trading based solely on technicals, long positions can be considered while the price remains above the moving average, with targets at 1.1097 and 1.1108.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Market Took a Step Back

The longest winning streak of the S&P 500 in two decades has come to an end. But who's responsible? The Federal Reserve, which plans to keep rates unchanged

Marek Petkovich 10:16 2025-05-06 UTC+2

Markets Anxiously Await the Fed's Monetary Policy Meeting (Potential for Renewed Growth in Bitcoin and #NDX)

Markets remain tense. The U.S. Dollar Index and the cryptocurrency market are stagnating, caught between opposing forces. Investors are tensely awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting

Pati Gani 10:02 2025-05-06 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 6: Trump Goes After the Film Industry

The GBP/USD currency pair traded upward during the first half of Monday and downward during the second half. While the U.S. dollar didn't lose much this time, its brief attempt

Paolo Greco 07:04 2025-05-06 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 6: The Protest Against Donald Trump Continues

The EUR/USD currency pair began a new upward cycle on Monday. At this point, no one is likely surprised by another drop in the U.S. dollar. The market started selling

Paolo Greco 07:04 2025-05-06 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 6? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Tuesday. In the Eurozone and Germany, the second estimate of April's services PMI will be published, but these are unlikely to attract

Paolo Greco 05:49 2025-05-06 UTC+2

Fed Rate Cut Probability Is Near Zero

This week marks the third Federal Reserve meeting of the year. At the first two meetings, monetary policy parameters remained unchanged, and there is virtually no chance of a rate

Chin Zhao 00:50 2025-05-06 UTC+2

The Dollar Sell-Off Shows No Signs of Slowing Down

The latest CFTC report reveals that the dollar sell-off continues unabated. Weekly changes against major currencies amounted to -$3.1 billion, bringing the total accumulated short position to -$17.1 billion

Kuvat Raharjo 00:50 2025-05-06 UTC+2

GBP/USD. The Pound and Politics

The pound reacted negatively to the results of the local elections in the UK, where the right-wing Reform UK party secured a convincing victory in many districts. However, the British

Irina Manzenko 00:50 2025-05-06 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to show resilience, climbing above the key psychological level of $3300. Geopolitical tensions stemming from the prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict and escalating hostilities in the Middle East continue

Irina Yanina 17:45 2025-05-05 UTC+2

USD/CHF: Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CHF pair remains under pressure at the start of the new week, attracting sellers for the second day in a row, weighed down by several factors. However, spot prices

Irina Yanina 17:35 2025-05-05 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback