विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 23.08.2022

23.08.2022 12:06 PM

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers urges Fed to tighten further the monetary policy

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers urged the Federal Reserve to make it clear that even though it will drive up the unemployment rate, there is a need to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation.

He said he fears that the US central bank will continue to say it could achieve low inflation, low unemployment and a healthy economy, which would not only leave people uncertain about what lies ahead, but also cause damage to the credibility of the Fed. "The reality is that the Fed can't bring inflation down completely without rising unemployment," Summers stated. "They don't want to admit it, but it introduces a certain confusion in all their statements."

Summers has consistently criticized the Fed for predicting that unemployment will rise to just 4.1% by 2024, saying instead that it will likely need to overcome 5% from the 3.5% level seen in July. He also disagreed with Powell's assessment that the Fed's interest rate - from 2.25% to 2.5% today - is a "neutral level" when it does not contain or fuel inflation.

"I hope we get clarity that the policy is not yet restrictive, that it has to be restrictive if we are going to contain inflation, and that we need to accept the consequences of that," Summers said. He added that he hoped "that this message will be conveyed clearly and clearly."

Summers, who also served as director of the White House's National Economic Council, also pointed out that the recovery in financial markets since mid-June is effectively at odds with the Fed's inflation campaign. "They should be concerned that financial conditions are now significantly weaker than they were at the last Fed meeting," he noted. "When financial conditions weaken substantially in the middle of a tightening cycle, that should make the central bank nervous."

These statements did not cause much optimism because headline inflation has shown a decline. The consumer price index was also unchanged in July, while core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3%.

"I don't see us making any significant progress on core inflation," Summers said, pointing to continued strong wage growth. "We still have major inflation issues ahead."

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