empty
14.08.2024 03:40 PM
Gold targets new record levels

When a decline seems inevitable, the ability to recover becomes crucial. Gold has quickly rebounded from financial market shocks, reinforcing the notion that the recent XAU/USD pullback was driven by speculative factors. Specifically, it stemmed from investors' intentions to meet margin calls on assets being sold off in the markets. Once the storm subsided and calm returned, the precious metal resumed its pursuit of record highs.

Although the panic about a U.S. recession has eased, the likelihood of a downturn is increasing. Goldman Sachs raised the odds from 29% to 41%, and JP Morgan from 20% to 31%. A cooling U.S. economy creates favorable conditions for gold. Investors are beginning to demand a lifeline from the Federal Reserve in the form of aggressive rate cuts, leading to a drop in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar.

U.S. Recession Probability Trends

This image is no longer relevant

Gold is denominated in U.S. dollars, so it generally rises when the USD index declines, as seen in August. This is largely due to a series of disappointing macroeconomic reports. The latest sign of an impending GDP slowdown came from weak producer price data. The core CPI showed no growth on a monthly basis, and the PPI for services declined in July for the first time this year.

In a strong economy, there cannot be weak inflation by definition, so investors interpreted the latest data as another sign of an approaching recession. The upcoming U.S. consumer price data could further fuel this concern. If the figures align with Bloomberg's expert forecasts, the three-month CPI will drop to its lowest level since early 2021. This would give the Federal Reserve the flexibility to lower the federal funds rate in September, thereby supporting XAU/USD.

U.S. Inflation Trends

This image is no longer relevant

The escalation of conflicts in Eastern Europe, including the first invasion of Russian territory since World War II, and in the Middle East, where Israel is preparing for potential attacks from Iran and a confrontation with Hezbollah, is adding fuel to the XAU/USD rally. Geopolitics has always been a reliable driver for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset, and the increasing risks are being embraced by the bulls with enthusiasm.

This image is no longer relevant

Other favorable factors for gold include dedollarisation, strong demand from central banks, increased buying from China and India, and the gradual return of investor interest in specialized exchange-traded funds, remain in play, making new record highs a realistic expectation.

Technically, on the daily gold chart, a strong reversal pattern, the Triple Top, is forming. Therefore, if the attempt to breach the $2481 per ounce resistance fails, the long positions formed at $2408 should be closed. However, if the bulls succeed, these positions can be maintained and periodically increased. Target levels include $2515 and $2570 per ounce.

Marek Petkovich,
InstaForex के विश्लेषणात्मक विशेषज्ञ
© 2007-2025
समय सीमा चुनें
5
मिनट
15
मिनट
30
मिनट
1
घंटा
4
घंटे
1
दिन
1
सप्ताह
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    कॉन्टेस्ट में हिस्सा लें

अनुशंसित लेख

वॉल स्ट्रीट को मृत वजन से छुटकारा मिला

अमेरिकी शेयर खरीदना गिरते हुए चाकू को पकड़ने जैसा है। यह आपके जीवन के लिए अप्रिय और खतरनाक है - या बल्कि, आपके बटुए के लिए। फिर भी, अमेरिकी शेयर

Marek Petkovich 12:39 2025-03-13 UTC+2

12 मार्च को किस पर ध्यान देना चाहिए? शुरुआत करने वालों के लिए मौलिक घटनाओं का विश्लेषण।

बुधवार के लिए बहुत कम मैक्रोइकोनॉमिक घटनाएं निर्धारित हैं। एकमात्र महत्वपूर्ण घटना अमेरिकी महंगाई रिपोर्ट है, जिसकी वर्तमान में ज्यादा अहमियत नहीं है, जैसे अन्य आर्थिक रिपोर्ट्स की स्थिति है।

Paolo Greco 08:04 2025-03-12 UTC+2

WTI - वेस्ट टेक्सास इंटरमीडिएट: तेल की कीमत में सुधार सीमित बना हुआ है

तेल की कीमतें सितंबर 2024 के बाद से अपने सबसे निचले स्तर से उबरने की कोशिश कर रही हैं। हालाँकि, निकट भविष्य में यह उछाल बरकरार रहने की संभावना नहीं

Irina Yanina 17:55 2025-03-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD. विश्राम

EUR/USD जोड़ी 500 प्वाइंट्स की तेज़ रैली के बाद रुक गई है, और अब इस सप्ताह के लिए महत्वपूर्ण आर्थिक आंकड़ों का इंतजार कर रही है। इसके अलावा, "चुप्पी का

Irina Manzenko 07:11 2025-03-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD जोड़ी का अवलोकन – 10 मार्च: ट्रंप डॉलर को और कितने समय तक कमजोर करेंगे?

EUR/USD मुद्रा जोड़ी ने पूरे शुक्रवार को अपनी ऊपर की प्रवृत्ति जारी रखी। इस बार, बाजार के पास डॉलर को बेचने के ठोस कारण थे। हालांकि, यह ध्यान में रखना

Paolo Greco 07:00 2025-03-10 UTC+2

क्या यूरो ईसीबी की ब्याज दर कटौती पर प्रतिक्रिया करेगा?

पूरे सप्ताह के दौरान, आगे की दरों में कटौती की स्पष्ट उम्मीदों के बावजूद, यूरो ने अमेरिकी डॉलर के मुकाबले तेज उछाल दिखाया है। यह लगभग तय है कि यूरोपीय

Jakub Novak 19:13 2025-03-06 UTC+2

विलंब से छूट तक: S&P 500 को सपोर्ट मिला

व्हाइट हाउस के मेक्सिको और कनाडा पर लगाए गए 25% टैरिफ से ऑटोमोबाइल सेक्टर को छूट देने के फैसले के बाद S&P 500 ने दृढ़ता हासिल की। डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प

Marek Petkovich 11:10 2025-03-06 UTC+2

बाजार पूरी तरह से दांव पर लगाता है।

अमेरिका के राष्ट्रपति बड़ा दांव खेल रहे हैं। व्हाइट हाउस द्वारा मेक्सिको और कनाडा के खिलाफ टैरिफ लगाने के जवाब में S&P 500 ने 2025 में अपनी सबसे बड़ी गिरावट

Marek Petkovich 06:22 2025-03-05 UTC+2

Bitcoin's dead cat bounce: a brief glimmer before continued weakness

Donald Trump's mention of a strategic reserve seemed to bring Bitcoin back to life. In reality, however, the BTC/USD rally in early March turned out to be nothing more than

Marek Petkovich 04:25 2025-03-05 UTC+2
अभी बात नहीं कर सकते?
अपना प्रश्न पूछें बातचीत.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.