Analisis Forex & Kajian: 24.09.2021 - EU and US suspect Gazprom of...

24.09.2021 12:42 PM

EU and US suspect Gazprom of fraud

Europe's worst energy crisis in decades may be delayed by Russia's failure to increase gas supplies until at least November.

Russia needs to initially replenish its reserves, which are severely depleted. The stockpile will last for October.

Domestic restrictions have arisen due to Europe's gas crisis.

The International Energy Agency urged Russia to increase supplies. The US noted that market manipulation caused the crisis. Besides, the EU policymakers have asked the European Commission to investigate Gazprom's role in the price growth. They have raised their suspicion that fuel delay is the reason to press the EU to speed giving approval to Russia's new Nord Stream-2 pipeline.

Unfortunately, the IEA also claimed that Russia could increase gas supplies to Europe.

Europe's gas prices are unlikely to drop in the near future, as competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas cargoes is further exacerbated by the crisis.

According to Bloomberg compiled data, Gazprom's gas storage facilities were filled only 16% by the end of last winter. Gazprom plans to fill them by November 1. Then it is ready to share the excess gas volumes with Europe.

Last week the Russian gas company stated that it was pumping 325 million cubic meters of gas per day. The same amount of gas is exported daily to Europe. Cold winter has depleted storage capacity, and there has been an increased demand to use gas for power plants over the summer. Besides, many other major Russian producers have reduced their supplies.

Gazprom plans to pump more than 510 billion cubic meters of gas this year. That volume includes gas shipments to Turkey, about 183 billion cubic meters, and to Europe. However, analysts expect that volumes may increase.

Besides, customers outside the EU should be satisfied. Gas shipments to Asia are sent from fields in Eastern Siberia, they cannot be used for shipments to Europe due to the lack of pipeline connection.

Shipments from Russia to China tripled in the first half of the year compared to last year. Moreover, this is not the record. Gazprom's plans to increase shipments to 38 billion cubic meters per year.

Shipments to Turkey have more than doubled.

According to Gazprom, all contractual obligations with foreign countries have been met, and the company is trying to satisfy an additional demand.

Vitaliy Ermakov, a senior researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said Gazprom has its limits and is not able to deliver any amount of gas anywhere in the world. For all Gazprom's efforts, the company cannot balance the entire European market on its own.

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Fundamental analysis

Irina Yanina,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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