Analisis Forex & Kajian: 24.06.2022 - Uncertain Rebound and...

24.06.2022 12:52 PM

Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

It is safe to say that Bitcoin has gone through one of the most difficult periods in its history. Cryptocurrency has experienced the most massive sell-off and profit-taking in its history. Thus, the asset completed the fifth phase of the bear market, which is called "panic." If we believe this conditional division of the crypto winter into cycles, then we are at the final stage of the global price decline. But despite all the pain and the losses for investors, there are several warning signs that may indicate another attempt to find a local bottom.

First of all, we are talking about the formation of the current market bottom at $17.7k. On the daily chart, you can see that there was no price rebound as such. Most likely, this should be regarded as the depletion of the downward potential. The volumes of buying activity during reaching the local bottom of the market were at a low level. We didn't see a long lower candlestick shadow like we did in 2021. This suggests that the bears have realized all their goals, and the bulls could not oppose this.

The same can be said about the current period of consolidation. It was not preceded by an active upward correction, which is typical after any strong price movement. Instead, we see hesitant Doji candles with long wicks. All these factors together indicate a complete lack of buying initiative and the volumes necessary for an upward movement. The dynamics and results of the return of BTC/USD above $20k became possible due to the termination of the sale by the miners.

It is no longer a secret to anyone that it was the cryptocurrency mining companies that became the main sponsor of the Bitcoin price drop below $20k. The downward potential of the bears was exhausted, and only the aggravated problems of the miners provided the sellers with the necessary volumes for the price to drop below $20k. Mining firms sold off all BTC accumulated in May 2022.

In addition, since June 14 alone, companies have sold more than 18,000 Bitcoins, which has been a serious pressure on the price. If you look at the chart, it turns out that it was after June 14 that the price crusade below $20k began. As of June 24, miners have stopped the mass sale, and even resumed accumulation. However, the nature of the rebound from $17k may indicate that the $17k level will not hold if there are repeated problems.

Repeated problems are quite possible already in early July. The main catalyst for the current decline in BTC was just negative data on inflation in the United States. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his last meeting that the current rate of inflation growth is forcing the Fed to act tougher, but later we will monitor the indicator and rely on the results when determining the level of the key rate hike.

After the events of early June, when, contrary to market expectations, it turned out that the Fed does not control the level of inflation, players will closely monitor the level of consumer price growth. With the war in Ukraine continuing and the US announcing new military and economic aid, there is no doubt that inflation is still capable of delivering unpleasant surprises to the market.

The fundamental and technical features of Bitcoin indicate that the asset can retest $17k, and possibly go lower. However, based on the historical context of the movement of BTC/USD quotes, we can say that the likely decline will be the last in the current bear market. In the history of Bitcoin, there have been many cases when the formation of a local bottom was due to a repeated price decline.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Crypto-currencies

Artem Petrenko,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Harian Mata Wang Kripto Bitcoin, Jumaat 21 Mac 2025.

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Intraday Matawang Kripto Ripple, Jumaat 21 Mac 2025.

Bitcoin mensasarkan untuk mencecah $90,000

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Kriptowang pada 20 Mac

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Mata Wang Kripto pada 19 Mac

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Mata Wang Kripto pada 18 Mac

Bitcoin dan Ethereum Bergelut untuk Bertahan

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Harian Cryptocurrency Uniswap, Jumaat 14 Mac 2025.

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Intraday Matawang Kripto Doge, Jumaat 14 Mac 2025

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Kripto pada 13 Mac

Analisis terbaik