Analisis Forex & Kajian: 30.01.2023 - Bitcoin continues its upward...

30.01.2023 12:33 PM

Bitcoin continues its upward movement: will a $24k bullish breakout be possible?

Over the weekend, Bitcoin does not pause to regroup and consolidate volumes, but continues to move to new highs. Having levelled off the bearish pressure on Saturday, the asset made a powerful bullish move on Sunday and formed one of the biggest green candles in the past few weeks.

In parallel, the asset is steadily consolidating above the $23k level and continues to move up. As of writing, Bitcoin has overcome the $23.5k level and is gradually approaching the $24k key psychological resistance level.

The cryptocurrency has been in a continuous bullish trend since the beginning of January. The asset has been leveling the sellers' pressure for almost a month and continues to break through resistance levels. In many ways, this became possible due to a combination of fundamental and technical factors.

The Fed is slowing down the key rate hike more and more, which makes the prospect of monetary policy easing visible. It also provides ample investment opportunities for large investors, who account for 85% of the success of the current bull rally.

The combination of these factors made it possible to neutralize the advantages of the bears. According to data from Glassnode, the NUPL reading is indicative of the depletion of capitulation in BTC. On-chain metrics data may indicate the completion of the price decline and the formation of a local bottom.

Another constant companion of the bullish rally of Bitcoin is the hashrate, which continues to update the historical record. The complexity of cryptocurrency mining after the recalculation increased by 4.68% and reached a new historical high.

Bitcoin and SPX

In parallel with Bitcoin, the S&P 500 index continues to rise, albeit rather weakly. The stock breaks through the bearish pressure near the $4,000 key resistance level. At the same time, technical metrics of the instrument gradually indicate the formation of bearish signals.

In addition, JPMorgan warned that the local bullish rally in stock indices is gradually ending. The $4,000–$4,100 area will likely be the final point of the SPX upward trend. Given this, we can expect an increase in selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market.

BTC/USD Analysis

Over the weekend, Bitcoin broke through the $22.8k–$23k key resistance area. A downward trend line and an important milestone for sellers slowed down the movement of BTC, which led to a weekly flat within the $22.3k–$23.4k area.

After a week of consolidation, we saw a strong take-out of sellers and a confident consolidation above $23.4k. This is a positive signal, potentially opening the way to $24k. At the same time, the presence of sellers forces buyers to carry out local consolidation and at least complete the trading day at the previous day's high.

It is also worth noting the absence of an upward trend in profit taking, which proves the belief in the further growth of BTC. The fear and greed index also crossed the 50 mark, which may indicate a breakdown in investor sentiment.

Results

The market continues to reorient to a bullish trend, and the presence of skepticism is the fuel for further upward movement. Among the nearest short-term targets for Bitcoin, it is worth highlighting the $24k level, and for a longer distance, the $25k mark.

That said, it's important to understand that bullish sentiment is growing, though there is still no overheating on the sentiment. However, every day the belief in further growth of BTC will strengthen, and Bitcoin movement will be framed by local corrective movements, the purpose of which will be to collect the growing long volumes.

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