Analisis Forex & Kajian: 29.03.2023 - Bitcoin continues to move...

29.03.2023 11:16 AM

Bitcoin continues to move sideways, but the clouds are gathering: what to expect in the near term?

The previous bullish week ended and left the cryptocurrency market in a state of increased volatility. The market has been consolidating and moving sideways for the fifth day to stabilize the situation. Trading volumes have fallen below $20 billion, and volatility has decreased significantly.

At the end of yesterday's trading day Bitcoin came close to the lower boundary of the $26.6k consolidation channel. However, the asset managed to rebound from this level and recover above $28k. This means that Bitcoin will retest the upper boundary of the consolidation channel in the near future.

The cryptocurrency has a ghostly chance to break through the upper border near $29k, and develop the next stage of the upward movement. This option is likely, but only within the framework of manipulative actions in order to collect liquidity beyond the resistance levels. Otherwise, the situation is becoming increasingly bearish, both fundamentally and technically.

Fundamental Factors

According to MarketDesk, Fed officials fear another round of rising inflation due to stimulus for the banking system. Against this background, the BlackRock investment fund makes a statement that the regulator will continue to raise the rate, and there is a high probability of dragging out the current monetary policy until the end of summer.

Goldman Sachs analysts said their estimate of the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. economy over the next 12 months rose from 25% to 35%. The index may rise even higher on Friday, on the release of GDP data for Q4 2022 and labor market statistics.

U.S. regulators continue to smoothly "squeeze" liquidity from the largest exchange, Binance. The CFTC has filed a lawsuit against the crypto exchange and wants a complete ban on the company's operations in the U.S., as well as all of its subsidiaries.

Against the background of this statement, the cryptocurrency market collapsed locally, having experienced an outflow of funds of more than $300 million per day. However, in addition to fundamental reasons, there are more and more technical signals that Bitcoin, and the entire market behind it, are moving in the direction of a corrective movement.

Profit-taking in BTC intensifies

As of March 29, Bitcoin was up 3.8% as part of a recovery move above $28k. On the daily chart, the cryptocurrency formed a bullish cross on the stochastic, which may indicate a further upward movement. At the same time, there is divergence on the MACD, and thus we should not expect great results from the upward move.

Last week, we noted emerging trends among long-term investors and miners. The former began to sell off their holdings when the price peaked above $28.5k. In the same period, miner stocks fell by 600 BTC in just two days.

Obviously, due to the lack of growth in the price of BTC and the retention of the key support at $26.6k, investors come to a decision in the form of profit-taking. Glassnode experts say profit-taking sentiment has expanded to short-term investors.

The current distribution period is also an important signal for a likely decline in the Bitcoin price. The price is testing the lower boundary of the current corridor with increasing volumes and volatility. At the same time, the recovery movement of the price occurs with falling volumes.

Results

Such observations indicate that bearish sentiment on the BTC market is growing, and in the near future, when the process of profit-taking will reach its apogee, we expect a breakdown of the $26.6k level. The nearest support zone for BTC will be $25k–$25.3k.

Subsequently, the asset may fall further to the levels of $23.6k–$24k and $22.1k. Simultaneously with the price decline there will be a stage of mass redistribution of BTC coins and liquidity withdrawal, which in the medium term will become a springboard for movement to $30k.

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Fundamental Factors

Profit-taking in BTC intensifies

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