Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.0946 price level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began its upward movement from the zero line. This appeared to confirm the right entry point for buying euros. However, if you considered the U.S. statistics that showed higher-than-expected inflation growth, you probably wouldn't have opened buy positions for the euro. A short time later, there was another test of the 1.0946 price level, and this time the MACD was showing an overbought signal, which allowed scenario #2 for selling to play out. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 30 points. Today, besides the German consumer price index, there is nothing else in the first half of the day, so euro buyers may have a chance to recover by the end of the week—especially since each euro sale is accompanied by significant buying activity, indicating interest from large market participants. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0946 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.0979 level. At 1.0979, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Counting on the euro's rise today in the first half of the day is possible only as part of a correction. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise before making a purchase.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0927 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0946 and 1.0979 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0927 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0901 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if the pair fails to rise beyond the daily high. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline before selling.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0946 price level when the MACD indicator shows an overbought signal. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0927 and 1.0901 can be expected.

Chart Information:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold signals as guidance.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management practices and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, such as the example provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.