EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis
The EUR/USD currency pair traded on Wednesday the same way it had for the last two weeks. The Fed meeting had virtually no impact on market sentiment, although there was a slight spike in volatility. However, a 50-pip volatility spike is hardly significant. That said, the Fed meeting results were somewhat unusual and ambiguous. As expected, the key interest rate remained unchanged at 4.5%, but the dot-plot chart indicated that FOMC members now anticipate more rate cuts over the next year than they did three months ago. This signals a shift toward a more dovish stance.
The Fed also lowered GDP growth forecasts, but during his press conference, Jerome Powell stated that the U.S. economy remains strong, meaning there is no rush to cut rates. He also noted that inflation is approaching the target level but is still slightly higher than desired. Additionally, Powell mentioned that trade tariffs add uncertainty and could exert upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, he emphasized that it is too early to draw conclusions or assess the impact of the new U.S. trade policy. Thus, the Fed prefers to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Simply put, the dollar could have fallen yesterday, but the market seemed unsure of how to interpret the situation. Nothing changed for the U.S. currency, as it had declined before the Fed meeting. If it didn't fall on Wednesday, it might fall on Thursday. The hourly timeframe has an ascending channel, and the dollar's strengthening can only be expected if the price drops below it.
On the 5-minute timeframe, there were several trading signals on Wednesday, but price movements were very chaotic, especially in the evening session. The only tradeable signal was a buying opportunity during the European session, which resulted in neither profit nor loss.
COT Report
The latest COT report, dated March 11, indicates that the net position of non-commercial traders has remained "bullish" for an extended period. Bears have struggled to gain control, but bulls are now regaining the upper hand. The advantage that bears once had is diminishing as Trump takes office and the dollar continues to decline. While we cannot definitively predict that the dollar's decline will persist, COT reports reflect the sentiment of major market players, which can change rapidly under current circumstances.
Although there are still no fundamental factors to justify a strengthening of the euro, one significant factor is currently weighing on the dollar. The EUR/USD pair may continue to correct for several weeks or even months, but it is unlikely that the 16-year downward trend will be reversed quickly.
At present, the red and blue lines have crossed again, indicating a "bullish" market trend. Over the last reporting week, long positions among non-commercial traders increased by 3,400, while short positions decreased by 19,800. As a result, the net position rose by another 23,200 contracts.
EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis
On the hourly chart, the price continues its uptrend, although not as strongly as before. Due to the monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed, we believe that a medium-term decline will resume. However, it is uncertain how long the market will focus solely on the "Trump factor." The current upward movement appears to be a market reaction against Donald Trump, but its final impact on the pair remains unclear. Many news events and economic reports are being ignored by traders, who are focused only on U.S. presidential statements, leading to continuous dollar sell-offs at every opportunity.
For March 20, the key trading levels to watch are 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0461, 1.0524, 1.0585, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, as well as the Ichimoku Senkou Span B line (1.0709) and Kijun-sen line (1.0858). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, so traders should consider these changes when identifying trade signals. Also, do not forget to place a Stop Loss at breakeven if the price moves in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if a trade signal is false.
ECB President Christine Lagarde will give a speech on Thursday, and the U.S. will release several minor economic reports. Lagarde is unlikely to change her rhetoric on monetary policy, meaning that her speech is not expected to trigger a strong market reaction. The U.S. reports are even less important and are unlikely to significantly impact the EUR/USD pair's movement.
Illustration Explanations:
- Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
- Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
- Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
- Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
- Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.
