empty
04.01.2023 10:43 AM
Is Bitcoin preparing to update the local bottom in Q1 2023?

Bitcoin remains unwaveringly committed to an indifferent flat movement in the first days of January 2023. The cryptocurrency managed to achieve local success and form a green candle, thanks to which the asset reached the level of $16.8k.

However, if we trace the weekly path of Bitcoin to current positions, we can note low trading volumes, as well as low investment activity of long-term investors. Certain categories of hodlers continue to sell off their BTC holdings.

This image is no longer relevant

According to data from Glassnode, the number of addresses with a balance of more than 1,000 BTC has dropped to 2,000. The figure has reached a three-year low, indicating a lack of consensus among long-term investors regarding Bitcoin.

In part, this fact indicates that the period of large-scale consolidation and redistribution of BTC volumes continues. However, throughout 2022, the market became convinced that the best catalyst for the movement of BTC coins is a crisis situation and a sharp drop in price.

Is Bitcoin heading toward $10k?

According to experts of the largest investment company VanEck, the cryptocurrency market is heading for this scenario. Analysts are confident that the first quarter of 2023 will be characterized by an aggravation of crisis processes and high volatility.

This image is no longer relevant

It is expected that Bitcoin will continue its downward movement and update the local bottom near the $10k–$12k levels. According to VanEck experts, this will be affected by the current state of the mining industry. The rise in the price of energy resources and the cost of mining BTC provoke huge losses among the miners.

Recall that, on average, for each BTC mined, mining companies incur a loss of about $3,000. It also recently became known that the total credit debt of public mining companies is more than $4 billion. VanEck experts consider these factors to be key in the future fall in the price of the cryptocurrency.

This image is no longer relevant

Recall that the warning about "several difficult months" was contained in a letter to the employees of the largest crypto exchange Binance. Also, the average percentage of BTC price drop from the high is 85%. As part of the current bear market, the asset lost about 77%.

This image is no longer relevant

Presumably, when the price of Bitcoin reaches the $10k–$12k area, the percentage of the fall from the high will be approximately 82%–85%. Given these data, forecasts from VanEck experts have every chance of becoming a reality.

SPX and Bitcoin

A regular guest of analysis of the situation around Bitcoin, the S&P 500 index is more relevant today than ever. If you look at the SPX annual price chart, you can see that despite the massive drop after 2021, the asset is still overheated.

This image is no longer relevant

Given the approaching recession and the focus of investors on capital preservation, the fall of SPX may continue. Bank of America and BNP Paribas forecast that the S&P 500 will end 2023 at $3,400.

This image is no longer relevant

As of January 4, the stock index quotes are close to $3,800. A fall to the $3,400 level will mean that the asset's capitalization will lose another 8%–10%. Given that SPX is the flagship of the stock market, a corresponding movement should be expected on other instruments.

BTC/USD Analysis

In the medium term, there is every reason to believe that Bitcoin will update the local bottom, which will cause the next stage of capitulation and redistribution of capital. At a distance of a year, the asset may resume its upward movement and reach the level of $30k, according to VanEck experts.

This image is no longer relevant

A key factor in the recovery movement of the Bitcoin price may be a reversal of the Fed's policy. More than 2/3 of economists from the 23 largest financial institutions expect the Fed to ease monetary policy in the second half of 2023, according to a WSJ survey.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there are plans to increase the key rate to the 5%–5.5% level. At current rates, the indicator will reach the indicated milestone by March–April 2023, just in time for the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Results

The crypto market has survived most of the bear market, however, many factors point to the need for a final dive. Given this, we should not expect significant recovery movements in the BTC price in the first half of 2023.

The main stage of the price recovery and consolidation movement in preparation for the 2024 bull market will begin in the second half of 2023. Until then, the investment environment in the crypto market will be toxic and unattractive due to the recession and future bankruptcies of crypto companies.

Artem Petrenko,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Recomendações de negociação para o mercado de criptomoedas em 19 de março

O Bitcoin e o Ethereum enfrentaram desafios novamente após uma recente liquidação no mercado de ações dos EUA, mas os compradores e os principais participantes mais uma vez mostraram

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:09 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Análise do BTC/USD - 18 de março: O Bitcoin se prepara para crescer, mas o risco de colapso permanece

A estrutura de ondas no gráfico de 4 horas para o BTC/USD parece clara e bem definida. Após a conclusão de uma tendência de alta de cinco ondas, iniciou-se

Chin Zhao 14:39 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Recomendações de negociação para o mercado de criptomoedas em 18 de março

Os compradores de Bitcoin e Ethereum tentaram impulsionar um movimento de alta, alimentando, por um momento, a esperança de um retorno do mercado altista. No entanto, não conseguiram sustentar

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:23 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Recomendações de negociação para o mercado de criptomoedas em 17 de março

O Bitcoin e o Ethereum continuam a se consolidar em seus respectivos canais, permitindo a expectativa de um mercado em alta contínua. Entretanto, vários fatores técnicos devem ser atendidos para

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:42 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Bitcoin e Ethereum lutam para se manter no mercado

Bitcoin e Ethereum seguem tentando ganhar força, mas enfrentam dificuldades a cada nova tentativa. Ainda assim, as chances de um retorno ao mercado altista permanecem relativamente altas. Após uma queda

Jakub Novak 14:28 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Recomendações de negociação para o mercado de criptomoedas em 14 de março

Atualmente, o Bitcoin e o Ethereum estão se consolidando dentro de canais, criando condições que podem levar a novas quedas. Embora muitos especialistas concordem que as baixas já foram atingidas

Miroslaw Bawulski 17:04 2025-03-14 UTC+2

Análise técnica do movimento intradiário de preços da criptomoeda Uniswap, sexta-feira, 14 de março de 2025

Pelo que é observado no gráfico de 4 horas da criptomoeda Uniswap, embora ainda esteja sob pressão, como indicado pelo movimento de preço abaixo da EMA (21) inclinada para baixo

Arief Makmur 14:59 2025-03-14 UTC+2

Análise técnica do movimento intradiário de preços da criptomoeda Doge, sexta-feira, 14 de março de 2025

Com o aparecimento da convergência entre o movimento de preços da criptomoeda Doge e o indicador Oscilador Estocástico, há uma indicação de que, no futuro próximo, o Doge

Arief Makmur 14:51 2025-03-14 UTC+2

Outra consolidação antes de uma queda

O Bitcoin e o Ethereum continuam tentando avançar, mas enfrentam obstáculos a cada movimento, indicando que essa alta pode ser apenas uma fase de consolidação dentro de uma correção baixista

Jakub Novak 13:14 2025-03-14 UTC+2

Bitcoin se prepara para um retorno

Com o Bitcoin e o Ether se recuperando fortemente de suas mínimas anuais, o mercado em alta ainda não parece ter chegado ao fim. Nesse contexto, a senadora Cynthia Lummis

Jakub Novak 20:32 2025-03-13 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.