empty
08.04.2025 12:56 AM
The Euro Adopts a Coyote Tactic

If someone strikes your left cheek, there's no need to plead for mercy. Interestingly, more than 50 countries, according to the White House, have done just that. But not China. China is far too proud to ask the U.S. for tariff relief. It can take care of itself. Retaliatory measures are already in place, and markets are increasingly buzzing with talk of yuan devaluation—causing EUR/USD to swing back and forth.

Beijing has imposed 34% tariffs on U.S. imports and restricted exports of rare earth metals. According to Bloomberg sources, the government discusses ways to support its economy, which is targeted by U.S. tariffs. The proposed measures are boosting consumption, encouraging birth rates, subsidizing certain export sectors, and creating a stock market stabilization fund.

However, these steps are unlikely to dispel investor fears. On Forex, there's more and more talk of yuan depreciation to make Chinese exports cheaper. While Mizuho Financial Group forecasts a 3% drop in the yuan against the U.S. dollar, Wells Fargo sees a 15% decline, and Jefferies projects as much as 30%. The more significant the devaluation, the more likely others—including Europe—might follow. These expectations are causing the EUR/USD value to decline, pushing it into negative territory.

Then, the euro rebounds strongly, driven by decreasing investor confidence in the U.S. dollar and increasing expectations of significant monetary expansion from the Fed. Derivatives markets don't believe Jerome Powell's claims that the Fed has no reason to rush. They've only slightly lowered the number of expected rate cuts—from five to four.

Forecasted Scope of Fed Monetary Expansion in 2025

This image is no longer relevant

At times, it appears that the market has forsaken rational behavior. Investor sentiment seems to be overtaken by Donald Trump's erratic decisions. The Republican urged Powell to "stop playing political games" and cut interest rates. His comments had more impact on EUR/USD than Powell's cautious statements.

This image is no longer relevant

Markets are struggling, and investors are uncertain of what to believe, leading to volatile fluctuations in the major currency pair. EUR/USD is increasingly being shaped by geography. During the European session, falling stock indices in the Eurozone weighed on the euro. Then comes the U.S. session, and the S&P 500 plunges, putting pressure on the dollar.

Technically, on the daily chart of EUR/USD, the battle over the upper boundary of the fair value range (1.076–1.100) continues. This level has shifted control multiple times between bullish and bearish investors. Traders might adopt a coyote's strategy: wait and see which lion loses, then side with the winner. A sustained move above $1.100 is a signal to buy—and vice versa.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

O processo foi iniciado. A China está pronta para as negociações comerciais (há uma chance de nova queda nos preços do ouro e do EUR/USD)

A negociação no último dia da semana segue em tom positivo. A notícia de que a China está disposta a retomar as negociações comerciais estimulou a compra de ativos

Pati Gani 17:22 2025-05-02 UTC+2

O mercado está entrando em águas turbulentas

O mercado parece confiante de que as tarifas não serão implementadas ou que as empresas conseguirão repassá-las aos consumidores. A sequência de oito altas consecutivas do S&P 500 —

Marek Petkovich 17:04 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 2 de maio? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Apenas alguns eventos macroeconômicos estão programados para sexta-feira, mas alguns são bastante significativos. Naturalmente, o foco está no NonFarm Payrolls dos EUA e na taxa de desemprego, mas também

Paolo Greco 16:29 2025-05-02 UTC+2

O BCE não tem outra alternativa

A moeda europeia continua a perder terreno frente ao dólar americano, à medida que os investidores aumentam suas apostas nas próximas decisões de política monetária do Banco Central Europeu (BCE)

Jakub Novak 16:04 2025-05-02 UTC+2

A China finalmente respondeu

O euro, a libra esterlina e outros ativos de risco registraram ganhos após declarações do Ministério do Comércio da China indicando que o país está avaliando propostas dos Estados Unidos

Jakub Novak 15:56 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Dados do mercado de trabalho dos EUA podem ser uma grande decepção

O crescimento do emprego nos EUA provavelmente desacelerou em abril, embora a taxa de desemprego deva permanecer inalterada, apontando para uma demanda saudável, porém moderada, por mão de obra. Entretanto

Jakub Novak 14:32 2025-05-02 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Análise e previsão

O par EUR/USD atrai compradores nesta sexta-feira, interrompendo uma sequência de três quedas consecutivas e buscando consolidar um impulso intradiário acima do nível psicológico de 1,1300. O movimento reflete

Irina Yanina 14:16 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Visão geral do EUR/USD em 1 de maio de 2025

O par de moedas EUR/USD continuou a ser negociado dentro do mesmo canal lateral de 1,1321-1,1426 na quarta-feira, claramente visível no gráfico horário. Apesar de uma grande quantidade de dados

Paolo Greco 16:07 2025-05-01 UTC+2

Mercado responsabiliza Trump pela instabilidade econômica

Em abril, o mercado de ações dos EUA levou os investidores por sua montanha-russa mais intensa desde a pandemia. As tarifas do "Dia da Libertação Americana", anunciadas pela Casa Branca

Marek Petkovich 15:37 2025-05-01 UTC+2

Por que o ouro está caindo pelo terceiro dia consecutivo

ouro queda terceiro consecutivo, por de nas comerciais os e parceiros, que reduzido demanda ativos refúgio, diante indícios desaceleração principais globais. Esses sinais positivos diminuem o apelo do ouro como

Jakub Novak 14:58 2025-05-01 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.