empty
21.08.2024 10:22 AM
Gold Flows to the West

Times are changing, and so are perspectives. Once, a price of $2500 per ounce of gold seemed exorbitant. Now, the futures market is actively betting that the precious metal could soar to $3000. For the first time in history, bars weighing around 40 ounces are priced above $1 million, which may not be the limit. Such high demand for gold has not been seen in a long time. And not only in the East.

While in 2022-2023, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy, rising Treasury yields, and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, XAU/USD quotes were rising due to de-dollarization, geopolitics, active central bank purchases, and increased appetite from China and India, the situation has changed in 2024-2025. Now, it is no longer Asia but North America and Europe that dictate their own rules in the precious metal market.

Gold is regaining the correlations it lost in previous years with Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. Both bond yields and the U.S. dollar are falling due to expectations of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Derivatives forecast that in 2024, the federal funds rate will plunge by 100 basis points to 4.5%, and in 2025, it will drop another 100 basis points to 3.5%. Cycles of monetary expansion have always created a favorable environment for an XAU/USD rally.

Dynamics of Gold and U.S. Bond Yields

This image is no longer relevant

It's no surprise that speculators have increased their net long positions in precious metals to the highest levels over four years, and ETF holdings rose in June and July after months of capital outflows from specialized exchange-traded funds.

Essentially, the West has picked up the falling banner from the East. Indeed, the sharp decline in Chinese gold imports in June and July, the cessation of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China, and lower prices in Shanghai compared to London indicate that demand in Asia is starting to wane. Prices are high.

Dynamics of Specialized Gold-Focused ETFs

This image is no longer relevant

What problems could XAU/USD be facing? A recession in the U.S. economy? As events in early August showed, fears of a recession did indeed cause the precious metal to drop. However, this was a momentary reaction to the sharp collapse in U.S. stock indexes. Investors were pulling gold from their portfolios to meet margin requirements for stocks. In fact, a recession is favorable for XAU/USD. In such a scenario, the Fed typically cuts rates sharply, Treasury yields fall, and the U.S. dollar weakens.

This image is no longer relevant

Neither a hard nor a soft landing for the U.S. economy is terrible for the precious metals. The country's GDP is slowing down, its currency is weakening, and it no longer has the same advantage over other countries.

Technically, on the daily gold chart, there is a battle for the pivot level of $2515 per ounce. If it remains for the bulls, we will continue to hold and increase our long positions from $2408, targeting $2570. A local victory for the bears would provide an opportunity to buy the precious metal on a pullback to $2480 per ounce.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin huye de la criptocapital del mundo

Donald Trump prometió hacer de América la criptocapital del mundo, pero ¿quién necesita una capital de la que todos huyen? Las peores liquidaciones de empresas tecnológicas desde 2022 entristecieron

Marek Petkovich 11:54 2025-03-11 UTC+2

WTI – West Texas Intermediate. La recuperación de los precios del petróleo está limitada

Hoy, el petróleo ha intentado recuperarse desde los niveles más bajos observados desde septiembre de 2024. Sin embargo, la recuperación no puede considerarse positiva en el corto plazo. Los inversores

Irina Yanina 10:55 2025-03-11 UTC+2

Las negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China sobre comercio están estancadas

Según informes de los medios, las negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China sobre comercio y otros asuntos se han estancado en niveles bajos, ya que ambas partes no logran entenderse

Jakub Novak 07:59 2025-03-11 UTC+2

El gas sigue subiendo rápidamente de precio

Las cotizaciones del gas se han consolidado de manera firme por encima del nivel de $4, y en este momento no hay razones para el regreso del mercado bajista

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:07 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 10 de marzo. La libra esterlina sigue subiendo.

El par de divisas GBP/USD reanudó su movimiento alcista el viernes. El paquete estadístico estadounidense no fue lo suficientemente fuerte, lo que completó el cuadro general del desastre del dólar

Paolo Greco 07:29 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 10 de marzo. ¿Cuánto tiempo más bajará Trump el tipo de cambio del dólar?

El par de divisas EUR/USD, naturalmente, siguió subiendo durante el viernes. Esta vez el mercado tenía buenas razones para vender el dólar, pero recordemos que durante toda la semana pasada

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 5 de marzo. El mercado se está salvando. Se está salvando de la política de Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD sumó unos 80 puntos el martes, y 120 puntos un día antes. Por su parte, el dólar cayó en su cotización casi 200 puntos

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-03-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 5 de marzo. ¿Corrección alcista o cambio de tendencia global?

El par de divisas EUR/USD subió 110 pips el lunes, y el martes subió otros 60 pips antes del inicio de la sesión americana. La subida del euro

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-03-05 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.